Model economics · plan value, checked

Claude’s 2.9× token lead doesn’t survive the per-task math

The SemiAnalysis chart is right: on the $20 plan, Claude gives 2.9× more tokens (2.9B vs 1.0B/month). But Opus 5.5 also burns 3.1× more tokens to finish the same task (119.2k vs 38.1k, Artificial Analysis) and costs 8.3× more per task. Divide the bonus by the burn and the token lead buys fewer tasks, not more.

Claude ÷ GPT on the $20 plan, as an index

Every bar is Claude Opus 5.5 relative to GPT-6.1 Sol (GPT = 100). The first two bars are why the last two look the way they do.

GPT-6.1 Sol Claude Opus 5.5 GPT baseline = 100
0 100 200 300 2.9× 3.1× 0.93× 0.68× Tokens per plan $20/mo allowance Tokens per task AA index, max effort Tasks per plan tokens ÷ tokens-per-task Tasks per API-$ value ÷ cost per task

2.9× more tokens ÷ 3.1× per task = 0.93× the work · 5.6× API value ÷ 8.3× cost per task = 0.68× per dollar

Sources: SemiAnalysis Tokenomics Model, 5 Oct 2026 (tokens per plan, API-equivalent value) · Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.3.2, 6 Oct 2026 (output tokens and cost per task, max effort).

The numbers behind the bars

Per $20/month plan GPT-6.1 Sol Claude Opus 5.5 Claude ÷ GPT
Tokens included 1.0B / month 2.9B / month 2.9×
Output tokens per AA task 38.1k 119.2k 3.1×
Cost per task (API rates) $0.72 $5.98 8.3×
API-equivalent value in plan $211 $1,178 5.6×
≈ Tasks per plan (token-normalized) 100 93 0.93×
≈ Tasks per plan (API-priced) 100 68 0.68×

Method & caveats

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